Market go in cycles. Cycles can move fast or slows. We've had 26 months of deceleration of earnings. The Russell 2000 year over year net income has been atrocious. While the S&P 500 has stayed positive, it is negative if we strip out the top seven largest companies.

Higher for Longer is here, ups and downs are here for a while, time to be well positioned within the portfolio.

Normality. Abnormal. The only thing that is constant is change itself. This year had a lot ups and downs, things that were odd, but were they truly out of the normal? No.

However, like with most years, there were good parts of the market and not so healthy parts. There were things that no one could have predicted, e.g. as much government spending as happened. But, like golf, you have to play golf where the ball is.

And then government spending happened. Government spending through out the year propped up the market and general economy for first 10 month of the years. November had huge rally's in both equity and bonds. The data is starting to turn positive. However, at what costs...$33 Trillion in debt?

Are we out of the clear?

As we see final economic data coming in from the first and second quarter of 2023, signals and indicators show that we were more conservative than we should have been in the first 8 months of the year.

Then September and October happened. Is the storm over or just beginning?

Mark Twain coined the phase, "lies, damned lies, and statistics." The statistics (data) is pointing to a pull back as we going forward. Will it be a sharp pull down and sharp rebound. is the data lying to us? From consumer squeeze, worse job report than expected, etc. Where is escape hatch?

When you only have a hammer everything looks like a nail. The Federal Reserve has very limited tools to control the stock market. It can influence the economy and thus can indirectly influence the market, but often time they are slow or late to the party.

Are we are the bring of a pull back on the stocks and bonds or are the singles mixed. Where we do go from here?

July 2023 is month that can be described as all tides lifts all boats or is the over all economy is improving? There are leading indicators and lagging indicators, there are indices that track all kinds of different metrics. So, what's underneath the hood? The stock market continuously rising despite economic headwinds of inflation, higher interest rates, and those living paycheck to paycheck.

As Warrant Buffet once said, “Only when the tide goes out, do you learn who has been swimming naked.”

The first half of 2023 was an shown to have a lot and underlying issues with the general economy as well as specific areas of the market. not all areas are rosy as some pundits would like us to think it is.

Stocks and bonds both declined during the first quarter of 2022 leaving investors with few places to hide. Value stocks outperformed Growth stocks as sector rotation continued. The best performing sectors were energy, utilities, and consumer staples. The worst performers were consumer discretionary, technology, and communications. Commodities, gold, and cash were the safe havens. Bitcoin essentially finished the quarter flat.

Large cap and small cap stock cycles last much longer than most investors think. Therefore, when it comes to asset allocation, size matters. These lengthy cycles cause some investors to remain over invested longer than they should, especially when they have become accustomed to the rewards.

In Part 1, we looked at the 40-year history of Growth vs. Value. In Part 2, we view Growth and Value within the context of Large Cap and Small Cap. We find Small Cap Value ahead at the turn.

The current Growth cycle in stocks has lasted more than a decade. For most of the past year, Value has started to overtake Growth. Is this another head fake, or time for Value to take the lead?