Week Ending March 7, 2026
Weekly Market Recap
SBC Investment Management | Week Ending March 7, 2026
Not FDIC Insured | No Bank Guarantee | May Lose Value
Equities & Fixed Income — W/W Performance
| Index | W/W Return | Result |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.56% | ↓ |
| Nasdaq Composite | -1.23% | ↓ |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg | -1.99% | ↓ |
| Russell 2000 | -1.75% | ↓ |
| MSCI ACWI Ex-USA | -1.99% | ↓ |
| Bloomberg US Aggregate | -0.92% | ↓ |
| Avg. W/W Return | -1.57% |
Key Rates & Treasury Curve
| Instrument | Current Yield |
|---|---|
| 2-yr U.S. Treasury | 3.73% |
| 10-yr U.S. Treasury | 4.28% |
| 30-yr U.S. Treasury | 4.90% |
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All returns represent total return for the stated period. Index returns do not reflect fees or expenses. Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard & Poor's, Russell Investments. Data as of March 14, 2026.
Market Volatility (VIX)
27.24
Elevated
Volatility
Volatility
Low (10)Normal (20)High (50)
VIX at 27.24 confirms elevated volatility. Dealer gamma positioning at most negative level since April 2025.
The Week in Review
- Dollar surged above 100 for first time since November, driving negative equity correlations
- MOVE Index spiked over 3,100 bps in a single month — bond market volatility elevated
- Brent crude rallied over 53% in the past month — commodities outperformed
- CTAs reduced equity exposure to near-annual lows
- Bullish trend across entire Treasury curve; rotation out of high yield credit
- Quad 3 monthly signal: stagflation protection narrative prevails
The Week Ahead — Watch For
- Dollar strength & equity correlation impact
- CTA positioning: rebuilding or maintaining reduced equity exposure?
- Commodity & energy market signals on stagflation theme
- Sector leadership: defensives (Utilities, Real Estate) vs. cyclicals
W/W Index Performance — Week Ending March 14, 2026
If you have any questions about the above, please reach out to us to set up a one-to-one meeting so we can review your situation. Sincerely,
Bryant Andrus, MSF, CFP®
President — SBC Investment Management
Jake Rehkop
Investment Analyst, Junior Portfolio Manager — SBC Investment Management
SBC Investment Management's Weekly Market Commentary is intended to communicate current economic and capital market information along with the informed perspectives of our investment professionals. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. There is no assurance that any of the trends discussed will continue or that any forecasts will occur. You should not construe any information in this publication as investment, financial, or any other professional advice. Nothing contained in this publication constitutes a recommendation, endorsement, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
Markets sold off across the board, with the Dow Jones leading losses at -1.99% while the S&P 500 fell 1.56%. The bond market offered no refuge as the Bloomberg US Aggregate declined 0.92%, reflecting continued pressure across the Treasury curve.
The dollar's surge above 100 for the first time since November drove much of the market action, creating negative correlations with equities while providing support to commodity markets, particularly energy. Brent crude rallied over 53% in the past month. The MOVE Index spiked over 3,100 bps in a single month, triggering caution for duration-sensitive exposures.
The key question is whether the chop bucket volatility regime persists or resolves. Watch for continued dollar strength and its impact on equity correlations, particularly in sectors sensitive to currency moves.
The extreme negative dealer gamma positioning suggests markets remain vulnerable to sharp moves in either direction. Sector leadership matters — defensive areas like utilities and real estate vs. growth-oriented sectors like financials and consumer discretionary that face headwinds in the current macro regime.
We have exited positions in emerging markets and small cap equities, reallocating toward energy, real estate, and utilities — aligned with Quad 3 sector preferences.
This positioning reflects our view that defensive characteristics and inflation sensitivity offer better risk-adjusted returns than growth-dependent exposures in a regime characterized by dollar strength, elevated volatility, and commodity outperformance. We continue to monitor regime signals closely for any shifts warranting tactical adjustments.